Martin Innes
Martin leads the Security, Crime and Intelligence Innovation Institute at Cardiff University. His current research interests are in state threats, information influence operations and disinformation campaigns. He also has expertise in counter-terrorism, policing and social control, topics where his research has been internationally influential across both academic and policy communities.
Projects
Articles
Academic Publications
Prophets and Loss: How “Soft Facts” on Social Media Influenced the Brexit Campaign and Social Reactions to the Murder of Jo Cox MP
This article examines “soft facts” about security issues in the 2016 Brexit referendum campaign. Soft facts arise when information provenance is uncertain, and are forms of malleable and contingent knowledge, such as rumors, conspiracy theories, and propaganda. There is a growing appreciation that digital communications environments are especially conducive to the dissemination of these kinds of information. Informed by empirical data comprising forty-five thousand nine hundred and fifty-seven data points collected by monitoring social media before and after the UK Brexit referendum campaign (June 16–October 12, 2016), the analysis examines how and why a series of soft facts concerning Brexit were mobilized. By developing the concept of “digital prophecy,” the article explores how influence is exerted by online prophets who were connecting current events to past grievances, to advance negative predictions about the future. This starts to capture the tradecraft of digital influencing, in ways that move beyond the structural topologies of communication networks. In policy terms, the analysis reminds us of the need to attend not just to how influence is achieved through fake news (e.g., using social media bots to amplify a message), but also why influence is sought in the first place.
(From the journal abstract)
Dobreva, D., Grinnell, D., & Innes, M. (2020). Prophets and Loss: How “Soft Facts” on Social Media Influenced the Brexit Campaign and Social Reactions to the Murder of Jo Cox MP. Policy & Internet, 12(2), 144–164.
https://doi.org/10.1002/poi3.203Frame, Fame and Fear Traps: The Dialectic of Counter-Terrorism Strategic Communication
From the journal abstract:
This paper explores the challenges and complexities navigated and negotiated in public facing counter-terrorism strategic communication campaigns. Informed by frame analysis of campaign assets, practitioner interviews and public focus groups, the discussion pivots around three high-profile UK public messaging campaigns. Building from Goffman’s theory of “normal appearances” and the established concept of a “frame trap”, the analysis identifies two further shaping tensions. A “fear trap” occurs when counter-terrorism messages seek to “outbid” other risks in order to capture public attention, thereby unintentionally creating the negative emotional reactions sought through acts of terrorism, or overly-reassuring messages that induce public disengagement. In contrast, a “fame trap” results from creating “too much” public awareness of terrorism, by using commercial marketing logics. In practice, frame, fame and fear traps overlap and interact across different contexts, and the analysis uses the concept of a dialectic of anomaly and normality to highlight implications for future scholarship and practice.
Rice, C., Innes, M., & Ratcliffe, J. (2024). “Frame, Fame and Fear Traps: The Dialectic of Counter-Terrorism Strategic Communication.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2024.2360669
https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2024.2360669Counter-Terrorism Strategic Communication Campaigns and the Generative Nature of Trust
Abstract
This article examines how public-facing counterterrorism campaigns are strategically constructed and communicated, to try to signal trust, as part of their wider agenda to deter terrorist risks and threats. The empirical evidence includes frame analysis of the main messaging assets across three UK campaigns, in-depth practitioner interviews, and public focus groups across different parts of the UK. Building on sensemaking theory (Weick, 1995) we present insights into sensemaking, sensegiving and sensebreaking around trust in this form of messaging, and introduce the concept of ‘sensebridging’ as a theoretical extension useful in understanding how trust deficits are negotiated by publics and tackled by practitioners through particular public relations strategies and mediums. We demonstrate how specific trust elements are ‘designed in’ to campaign assets, and how these are (re-)interpreted by publics through the lens of distant and recent histories, as well as hyperlocal presents. Viewed in this way, the article moves beyond the idea of bifurcated trust that either is or is not present, instead arguing that trust is ‘generative,’ and as such more complex, situated, and mobile. In doing so, it makes several interdisciplinary contributions together with practical recommendations that centre on appreciating the generative nature of trust in strategic communication.
Rice, C., & Innes, M. (2025). Counter-Terrorism Strategic Communication Campaigns and the Generative Nature of Trust. International Journal of Strategic Communication, 19(5), 624–650. https://doi.org/10.1080/1553118X.2025.2501558
Projects
Articles
Academic Publications
Prophets and Loss: How “Soft Facts” on Social Media Influenced the Brexit Campaign and Social Reactions to the Murder of Jo Cox MP
This article examines “soft facts” about security issues in the 2016 Brexit referendum campaign. Soft facts arise when information provenance is uncertain, and are forms of malleable and contingent knowledge, such as rumors, conspiracy theories, and propaganda. There is a growing appreciation that digital communications environments are especially conducive to the dissemination of these kinds of information. Informed by empirical data comprising forty-five thousand nine hundred and fifty-seven data points collected by monitoring social media before and after the UK Brexit referendum campaign (June 16–October 12, 2016), the analysis examines how and why a series of soft facts concerning Brexit were mobilized. By developing the concept of “digital prophecy,” the article explores how influence is exerted by online prophets who were connecting current events to past grievances, to advance negative predictions about the future. This starts to capture the tradecraft of digital influencing, in ways that move beyond the structural topologies of communication networks. In policy terms, the analysis reminds us of the need to attend not just to how influence is achieved through fake news (e.g., using social media bots to amplify a message), but also why influence is sought in the first place.
(From the journal abstract)
Dobreva, D., Grinnell, D., & Innes, M. (2020). Prophets and Loss: How “Soft Facts” on Social Media Influenced the Brexit Campaign and Social Reactions to the Murder of Jo Cox MP. Policy & Internet, 12(2), 144–164.
Frame, Fame and Fear Traps: The Dialectic of Counter-Terrorism Strategic Communication
From the journal abstract:
This paper explores the challenges and complexities navigated and negotiated in public facing counter-terrorism strategic communication campaigns. Informed by frame analysis of campaign assets, practitioner interviews and public focus groups, the discussion pivots around three high-profile UK public messaging campaigns. Building from Goffman’s theory of “normal appearances” and the established concept of a “frame trap”, the analysis identifies two further shaping tensions. A “fear trap” occurs when counter-terrorism messages seek to “outbid” other risks in order to capture public attention, thereby unintentionally creating the negative emotional reactions sought through acts of terrorism, or overly-reassuring messages that induce public disengagement. In contrast, a “fame trap” results from creating “too much” public awareness of terrorism, by using commercial marketing logics. In practice, frame, fame and fear traps overlap and interact across different contexts, and the analysis uses the concept of a dialectic of anomaly and normality to highlight implications for future scholarship and practice.
Rice, C., Innes, M., & Ratcliffe, J. (2024). “Frame, Fame and Fear Traps: The Dialectic of Counter-Terrorism Strategic Communication.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2024.2360669
Counter-Terrorism Strategic Communication Campaigns and the Generative Nature of Trust
Abstract
This article examines how public-facing counterterrorism campaigns are strategically constructed and communicated, to try to signal trust, as part of their wider agenda to deter terrorist risks and threats. The empirical evidence includes frame analysis of the main messaging assets across three UK campaigns, in-depth practitioner interviews, and public focus groups across different parts of the UK. Building on sensemaking theory (Weick, 1995) we present insights into sensemaking, sensegiving and sensebreaking around trust in this form of messaging, and introduce the concept of ‘sensebridging’ as a theoretical extension useful in understanding how trust deficits are negotiated by publics and tackled by practitioners through particular public relations strategies and mediums. We demonstrate how specific trust elements are ‘designed in’ to campaign assets, and how these are (re-)interpreted by publics through the lens of distant and recent histories, as well as hyperlocal presents. Viewed in this way, the article moves beyond the idea of bifurcated trust that either is or is not present, instead arguing that trust is ‘generative,’ and as such more complex, situated, and mobile. In doing so, it makes several interdisciplinary contributions together with practical recommendations that centre on appreciating the generative nature of trust in strategic communication.
Rice, C., & Innes, M. (2025). Counter-Terrorism Strategic Communication Campaigns and the Generative Nature of Trust. International Journal of Strategic Communication, 19(5), 624–650. https://doi.org/10.1080/1553118X.2025.2501558